The False Economy of Seeking to Eliminate Delayed Transfers of Care: Some Lessons from Queueing Theory.

BACKGROUND: It is a stated ambition of many healthcare systems to eliminate delayed transfers of care (DTOCs) between acute and step-down community services. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to demonstrate how, counter to intuition, pursual of such a policy is likely to be uneconomical, as it would require large amounts of community capacity to accommodate even the rarest of demand peaks, leaving much capacity unused for much of the time. METHODS: Some standard results from queueing theory-a mathematical discipline for considering the dynamics of queues and queueing systems-are used to provide a model of patient flow from the acute to community setting. While queueing models have a track record of application in healthcare, they have not before been used to address this question. RESULTS: Results show that 'eliminating' DTOCs is a false economy: the additional community costs required are greater than the possible acute cost saving. While a substantial proportion of DTOCs can be attributed to inefficient use of resources, the remainder can be considered economically essential to ensuring cost-efficient service operation. For England's National Health Service (NHS), our modelling estimates annual cost savings of £117m if DTOCs are reduced to the 12% of current levels that can be regarded as economically essential. CONCLUSION: This study discourages the use of 'zero DTOC' targets and instead supports an assessment based on the specific characteristics of the healthcare system considered.

Optimising the balance of acute and intermediate care capacity for the complex discharge pathway: Computer modelling study during COVID-19 recovery in England.

OBJECTIVES: While there has been significant research on the pressures facing acute hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been less interest in downstream community services which have also been challenged in meeting demand. This study aimed to estimate the theoretical cost-optimal capacity requirement for 'step down' intermediate care services within a major healthcare system in England, at a time when considerable uncertainty remained regarding vaccination uptake and the easing of societal restrictions. METHODS: Demand for intermediate care was projected using an epidemiological model (for COVID-19 demand) and regressing upon public mobility (for non-COVID-19 demand). These were inputted to a computer simulation model of patient flow from acute discharge readiness to bedded and home-based Discharge to Assess (D2A) intermediate care services. Cost-optimal capacity was defined as that which yielded the lowest total cost of intermediate care provision and corresponding acute discharge delays. RESULTS: Increased intermediate care capacity is likely to bring about lower system-level costs, with the additional D2A investment more than offset by substantial reductions in costly acute discharge delays (leading also to improved patient outcome and experience). Results suggest that completely eliminating acute 'bed blocking' is unlikely economical (requiring large amounts of downstream capacity), and that health systems should instead target an appropriate tolerance based upon the specific characteristics of the pathway. CONCLUSIONS: Computer modelling can be a valuable asset for determining optimal capacity allocation along the complex care pathway. With results supporting a Business Case for increased downstream capacity, this study demonstrates how modelling can be applied in practice and provides a blueprint for use alongside the freely-available model code.

Setting up a rapid diagnostic clinic for patients with vague symptoms of cancer: a mixed method process evaluation study.

BACKGROUND: The study sought to evaluate the impact of a Rapid Diagnostic Clinic (RDC) service designed to improve general practitioner (GP) referral processes for patients who do not meet existing referral criteria yet present with vague - but potentially concerning - symptoms of cancer. We sought to investigate how well the RDC has performed in the views of local GPs and patients, and through analysis of its activity and performance in the first two years of operation. METHODS: The study setting was a single, hospital-based RDC clinic in a University Health Board in South Wales. We used a mixed-method process evaluation study, including routinely collected activity and diagnosis data. All GPs were invited to participate in an online survey (34/165 responded), and a smaller group (n = 8) were interviewed individually. Two focus groups with patients and their carers (n = 7) provided in-depth personal accounts of their experiences. RESULTS: The focus groups revealed high rates of patient satisfaction with the RDC. GPs were also overwhelmingly positive about the value of the RDC to their practice. There were 574 clinic attendances between July 2017 and March 2019; the mean age of attendees was 68, 57% were female, and approximately 30% had three or more vague symptoms. Of those attending, we estimated between 42 to 71 (7.3 and 12.3%) received preliminary cancer diagnoses. Median time from GP referral to RDC appointment was 12 days; from GP referral to cancer diagnosis was 34 days. Overall, 73% of RDC patients received either a new diagnosis (suspected cancer 23.2%, non-cancer 35.9%) or an onward referral to secondary care for further investigation with no new diagnosis (13.9%), and 27% were referred to primary care with no new diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The RDC appears to enable a good patient experience in cancer diagnosis. Patients are seen in timely fashion, and the service is highly regarded by them, their carers, and referring GPs. Although too early to draw conclusions about long-term patient outcomes, there are strong indications to suggest that this model of service provision can set higher standards for a strongly patient-centred service.

The impact of accessibility and service quality on the frequency of patient visits to the primary diabetes care provider: results from a cross-sectional survey performed in six European countries.

BACKGROUND: Visits to the primary diabetes care provider play a central role in diabetes care. Therefore, patients should attend their primary diabetes care providers whenever a visit is necessary. Parameters that might affect whether this condition is fulfilled include accessibility (in terms of travel distance and travel time to the practice), as well as aspects of service quality (for example in-practice waiting time and quality of the provider's communication with the patient). The relationships of these variables with the frequency of visits to the primary diabetes care provider are investigated. METHODS: The investigation is performed with questionnaire data of 1086 type 2 diabetes patients from study regions in England (213), Finland (135), Germany (218), Greece (153), the Netherlands (296) and Spain (71). Data were collected between October 2011 and March 2012. Data were analysed using log-linear Poisson regression models with self-reported numbers of visits in a year to the primary diabetes care provider as the criterion variable. Predictor variables of the core model were: country; gender; age; education; stage of diabetes; heart problems; previous stroke; problems with lower extremities; problems with sight; kidney problems; travel distance and travel time; in-practice waiting time; and quality of communication. To test region-specific characteristics, the interaction between the latter four predictor variables and study region was also investigated. RESULTS: When study regions are merged, travel distance and in-practice waiting time have a negative effect, travel time no effect and quality of communication a positive effect on visit frequency (with the latter effect being by far largest). When region specific effects are considered, there are strong interaction effects shown for travel distance, in-practice waiting time and quality of communication. For travel distance, as well as for in-practice waiting time, there are region-specific effects in opposite directions. For quality of communication, there are only differences in the strength with which visit frequency increases with this variable. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of quality of communication on visit frequency is the largest and is stable across all study regions. Hence, increasing quality of communication seems to be the best approach for increasing visit frequency.

Correction: The relationship between context, structure, and processes with outcomes of 6 regional diabetes networks in Europe.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192599.].

Development of a universal short patient satisfaction questionnaire on the basis of SERVQUAL: Psychometric analyses with data of diabetes and stroke patients from six different European countries.

OBJECTIVE: A short questionnaire which can be applied for assessing patient satisfaction in different contexts and different countries is to be developed. METHODS: Six items addressing tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy, and communication were analysed. The first five items stem from SERVQUAL (SERVice QUALity), the last stems from the discussion about SERVQUAL. The analyses were performed with data from 12 surveys conducted in six different countries (England, Finland, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Spain) covering two different conditions (type 2 diabetes, stroke). Sample sizes for included participants are 247 in England, 160 in Finland, 231 in Germany, 152 in Greece, 316 in the Netherlands and 96 in Spain for the diabetes surveys; and 101 in England, 139 in Finland, 107 in Germany, 58 in Greece, 185 in the Netherlands, and 92 in Spain for the stroke surveys. The items were tested by (1) bivariate correlations between the items and an item addressing 'general satisfaction', (2) multivariate regression analyses with 'general satisfaction' as criterion and the items as predictors, and (3) bivariate correlations between sum scores and 'general satisfaction'. RESULTS: The correlations with 'general satisfaction' are 0.48 for tangibles, 0.56 for reliability, 0.58 for responsiveness, 0.47 for assurance, 0.53 for empathy, and 0.56 for communication. In the multivariate regression analysis, the regression coefficient for assurance is significantly negative while all other regression coefficients are significantly positive. In a multivariate regression analysis without the item 'assurance' all regression coefficients are positive. The correlation between the sum score and 'general satisfaction' is 0.608 for all six items and 0.618 for the finally remaining five items. The country specific results are similar. CONCLUSIONS: The five items which remain after removing 'assurance', i.e. the SERVQUAL-MOD-5, constitute a short patient satisfaction index which can usefully be applied for different medical conditions and in different countries.

Do Caregiver Characteristics Affect Caregiver Burden Differently in Different Countries?

The relationships between caregiver burden as measured with the Burden Scale for Family Caregivers-short form and 6 characteristics of caregivers caring for patients with dementia were investigated for caregivers from England (n = 36), Finland (n = 42), and Greece (n = 46) using survey data. In all 3 countries, caregiver burden increases with physical problems of the caregiver, emotional problems of the caregiver, and weekly hours of care. Hence, in all 3 countries, special support for informal care is required when these characteristics are at high levels. When the caregiver is a spouse or long-term partner of the person with dementia, lives in the same house as this person, or spends fewer than 20 h/wk for other duties than care, this is associated with less caregiver burden in England but with more caregiver burden in Greece. Accordingly, special support is required for Greek caregivers with these characteristics, but the opposite is true for English caregivers.

The relationship between context, structure, and processes with outcomes of 6 regional diabetes networks in Europe.

BACKGROUND: While health service provisioning for the chronic condition Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) often involves a network of organisations and professionals, most evidence on the relationships between the structures and processes of service provisioning and the outcomes considers single organisations or solo practitioners. Extending Donabedian's Structure-Process-Outcome (SPO) model, we investigate how differences in quality of life, effective coverage of diabetes, and service satisfaction are associated with differences in the structures, processes, and context of T2D services in six regions in Finland, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Spain, and UK. METHODS: Data collection consisted of: a) systematic modelling of provider network's structures and processes, and b) a cross-sectional survey of patient reported outcomes and other information. The survey resulted in data from 1459 T2D patients, during 2011-2012. Stepwise linear regression models were used to identify how independent cumulative proportion of variance in quality of life and service satisfaction are related to differences in context, structure and process. The selected context, structure and process variables are based on Donabedian's SPO model, a service quality research instrument (SERVQUAL), and previous organization and professional level evidence. Additional analysis deepens the possible bidirectional relation between outcomes and processes. RESULTS: The regression models explain 44% of variance in service satisfaction, mostly by structure and process variables (such as human resource use and the SERVQUAL dimensions). The models explained 23% of variance in quality of life between the networks, much of which is related to contextual variables. Our results suggest that effectiveness of A1c control is negatively correlated with process variables such as total hours of care provided per year and cost of services per year. CONCLUSIONS: While the selected structure and process variables explain much of the variance in service satisfaction, this is less the case for quality of life. Moreover, it appears that the effect of the clinical outcome A1c control on processes is stronger than the other way around, as poorer control seems to relate to more service use, and higher cost. The standardized operational models used in this research prove to form a basis for expanding the network level evidence base for effective T2D service provisioning.

Investigating burden of informal caregivers in England, Finland and Greece: an analysis with the short form of the Burden Scale for Family Caregivers (BSFC-s).

OBJECTIVES: The burden of informal caregivers might show itself in different ways in different cultures. Understanding these differences is important for developing culture-specific measures aimed at alleviating caregiver burden. Hitherto, no findings regarding such cultural differences between different European countries were available. In this paper, differences between English, Finnish and Greek informal caregivers of people with dementia are investigated. METHODS: A secondary analysis was performed with data from 36 English, 42 Finnish and 46 Greek caregivers obtained with the short form of the Burden Scale for Family Caregivers (BSFC-s). The probabilities of endorsing the BSFC-s items were investigated by computing a logit model with items and countries as categorical factors. Statistically significant deviation of data from this model was taken as evidence for country-specific response patterns. RESULTS: The two-factorial logit model explains the responses to the items quite well (McFadden's pseudo-R-square: 0.77). There are, however, also statistically significant deviations (p < 0.05). English caregivers have a stronger tendency to endorse items addressing impairments in individual well-being; Finnish caregivers have a stronger tendency to endorse items addressing the conflict between the demands resulting from care and demands resulting from the remaining social life and Greek caregivers have a stronger tendency to endorse items addressing impairments in physical health. CONCLUSION: Caregiver burden shows itself differently in English, Finnish and Greek caregivers. Accordingly, measures for alleviating caregiver burden in these three countries should address different aspects of the caregivers' lives.

The impact of travel distance, travel time and waiting time on health-related quality of life of diabetes patients: An investigation in six European countries.

AIMS: The effects of travel distance and travel time to the primary diabetes care provider and waiting time in the practice on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients with type 2 diabetes are investigated. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Survey data of 1313 persons with type 2 diabetes from six regions in England (274), Finland (163), Germany (254), Greece (165), the Netherlands (354), and Spain (103) were analyzed. Various multiple linear regression analyses with four different EQ-5D-3L indices (English, German, Dutch and Spanish index) as target variables, with travel distance, travel time, and waiting time in the practice as focal predictors and with control for study region, patient's gender, patient's age, patient's education, time since diagnosis, thoroughness of provider-patient communication were computed. Interactions of regions with the remaining five control variables and the three focal predictors were also tested. RESULTS: There are no interactions of regions with control variables or focal predictors. The indices decrease with increasing travel time to the provider and increasing waiting time in the provider's practice. CONCLUSIONS: HRQoL of patients with type 2 diabetes might be improved by decreasing travel time to the provider and waiting time in the provider's practice.

The validity of the EQ-5D-3L items: an investigation with type 2 diabetes patients from six European countries.

BACKGROUND: Most previous studies concerning the validity of the EQ-5D-3L items refer to applications of only a single language version of the EQ-5D-3L in only one country. Therefore, there is little information concerning the extent to which the results can be generalised across different language versions and/or different countries. Here the validity of the EQ-5D-3L items is investigated for six different language versions in six different countries. METHODS: Data came from 1341 type 2 diabetes patients (England: 289; Finland: 177; Germany: 255; Greece: 165; the Netherlands: 354; Spain: 101). The relationships of the five EQ-5D-3L items with seven different test variables (age, gender, education, previous stroke, problems with heart, problems with lower extremities, problems with eyes), were analysed for each combination of item and test variable. For each combination two logistic regression models with the dichotomised EQ-5D-3L item as dependent variable were computed. The first model contained the test variable and dummy coded countries as independent variables, the second model additionally the terms for the interaction between country and test variable. Statistically significant better fit of the second model was taken as evidence for country specific differences regarding the relationship. When such differences could be attributed mainly to one country the analyses were repeated without the data from this country. Validity was investigated with the remaining data using results of the first models. RESULTS: Due to lack of variation in the Spanish data only 31 of the originally intended 35 interaction tests could be performed. Only three of these yielded a significant result. In all three cases the Spanish data deviated most. Without the Spanish data only 1 of the 35 interaction tests yielded a significant result. With 3 exceptions, the tendency of reporting problems increased with age, female gender, lower education, previous stroke, heart problems, problems with lower extremities and problems with eyes for all EQ-5D-3L items. CONCLUSION: The results concerning the European Spanish version are ambiguous. However, the items of the English, Finnish, German, Greek and Dutch versions of the EQ-5D-3L relate in substantially the same way to the test variables. Mostly, these relationships indicate the items' validity.

Successful development and application of a strategic dialysis planning model (RENPLAN).

Strategic planning for chronic dialysis services to allow cost-effective organization of resources and workforce planning is a difficult but essential task. The planning process within an individual unit involves consideration of both generic issues and issues specific to the unit. We used the Balance of Care approach to planning, which takes into account the affect that the dependency level of patients has on the therapeutic options and on how those options can be delivered. In a workshop format, we developed a spreadsheet computer model (RENPLAN) and applied it to facilitate discussion between clinical and non clinical health care professionals, dialysis unit managers, and renal patient representatives. Within the unit concerned, we used the model to explore a variety of planning options, including reducing the number of patients receiving automated peritoneal dialysis (proposed as a cost-reduction measure by managers). The model precisely calculates future resource requirements (staff numbers, hemodialysis stations, disposables costs), indicates deficits in clinical audit data, and facilitates education of non clinical managers regarding the major issues in dialysis planning. The RENPLAN model is freely available to all units and is adaptable for analysis of local planning issues.